Sri Lanka elections 2024: Will parliament back Marxist-leaning president amid economic crisis?

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Sri Lanka embarked on a pivotal snap election on Thursday, a decision that will reveal whether the nation wants to strengthen the position of its new, left-leaning President, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, in his mission to implement pro-poor policies. As Sri Lanka navigates its recovery from a significant financial crisis, the country’s 17 million eligible voters will decide on the composition of a 225-member parliament for a five-year term, reports Reuters.

A Record Number of Candidates Compete

A historic number of 690 political parties and independent groups are vying for seats across 22 electoral districts in Sri Lanka, marking a high level of political engagement. This election follows the recent rise of Dissanayake, 55, a Marxist-aligned leader who secured the presidency in September. However, his National People’s Power (NPP) coalition currently holds only three of the 225 parliamentary seats. This disparity motivated him to dissolve the parliament nearly a year before the end of its term, seeking a renewed mandate to advance his policy agenda.

Security and Smooth Voting Process

Ensuring a smooth election process, over 7,000 police personnel have been deployed, supported by military forces on standby. With more than 13,400 polling stations set up across the country, voting has been progressing peacefully. “The military is also on standby to assist the police, but we do not expect any incidents,” stated Police Spokesman Nihal Thalduwa. Voters have been gradually making their way to polling stations in schools, temples, and public buildings.

High Hopes for Political Change

Voters like Umeshi Perera, 32, expressed optimism about the potential for positive political change. “I think we are seeing the first signs of a positive political change in Sri Lanka after the president was elected, and we should give him the chance to continue that change,” she said. Analysts note that Dissanayake’s coalition is expected to attract significant support; however, a strong showing by opposition parties could stall policy advancement, an outcome Sri Lanka can scarcely afford during this critical period.

Key Contenders and Policy Approaches

Among the primary challengers is the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) party, led by opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, who advocates for a blend of interventionist and free-market policies. The New Democratic Front, another key contender, is supported by former President Ranil Wickremesinghe. These parties present alternative approaches to governance and economic policy, which could substantially impact Sri Lanka’s recovery trajectory.

Economic Struggles and the Push for Pro-Poor Policies

Sri Lanka, with a population of 22 million, has been battling severe economic challenges following a devastating financial crisis in 2022. Triggered by a foreign currency shortage, the crisis led to a 7.3 per cent economic contraction in 2022, followed by a further 2.3 per cent shrinkage last year. Backed by a $2.9 billion IMF bailout, the economy is now gradually recovering, but the high cost of living remains a major issue, especially for low-income households.

President Dissanayake’s policy agenda includes expanding welfare programs, combating corruption, and reducing the country’s dependency on family-dominated politics. His proposals aim to make adjustments to the IMF agreement by lowering high-income taxes and increasing welfare investments for economically vulnerable groups.

Concerns of Investors Amid IMF Bailout Conditions

While Dissanayake’s pro-poor initiatives resonate with many Sri Lankans, some investors are concerned that his plans to renegotiate aspects of the IMF bailout could impact future funding. The current IMF programme includes a target to achieve a primary surplus of 2.3 per cent of GDP by 2025, which is critical for sustainable economic growth. Any delays in disbursements could complicate the path to meeting these fiscal targets, further straining the nation’s finances.

Building a United Political Front

During his final campaign address, Dissanayake emphasized the NPP’s journey to gain voter confidence, which culminated in his presidential victory. “The next task is to unite people from the four corners of this country and build a powerful people’s movement,” he stated, underscoring his vision for a united and inclusive approach to governance.

Anticipated Election Results

With polls closing on Thursday, vote counting will commence immediately, and results are expected on Friday. As Sri Lanka awaits these outcomes, the election serves as a critical juncture, determining not only the direction of Dissanayake’s government but also the country’s economic and social policies for the coming years.

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