Economics Research Center Forecasts Kazakhstan’s Inflation Rate to Slow Down in 2023

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The Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC) published its macroeconomic review for Kazakhstan on Jan. 31, projecting the country’s average annual consumer inflation rate to slow down to 9.8 percent this year, according to the AERC press service.

Despite a global recession and ongoing uncertainty, the AERC provided a rather positive outlook for 2023, considering that global food inflation has been decreasing for several months while inflation has been slowing down in Russia and the European Union.

The AERC projected Kazakhstan’s economic growth rate to reach 4.2 percent, with a 7.8 percent increase in the construction sector.

According to the baseline scenario, the dollar exchange rate is forecast at 474 tenge per U.S. dollar, mainly due to the lower price for Brent crude oil, averaging US$83.1 per barrel.

The budget revenues will rise to 13.8 trillion tenge (US$29.9 billion), and expenditures – to 20.1 trillion tenge (US$43.5 billion). The state budget deficit will stand at 4.1 percent of GDP, or 4.1 trillion tenge (US$8.8 billion).