China or Russia? Argentina is going to fight the second Falklands War, who cares who needs military aid? 

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Recently, if there are any major international events that deserve the attention of the outside world, the Russia-Ukraine conflict that has been going on for a year must not have escaped. Another major event is that Argentina asked the United Kingdom to restart the Falklands (Malvinas Islands, which the United Kingdom called “Falkland Islands”) sovereignty negotiations. And this move by Argentina also makes the outside world wonder, is this just Argentina’s way of diverting domestic conflicts, or is it really trying to recover the Falklands and the prelude to the outbreak of the Second Falklands War?

A few days ago, the Russian military website “topcor.ru” published an article entitled “With China’s Support, Is a Second Falkland Islands War Possible?” “A review article. The article stated that although the Falklands War broke out between Argentina and the United Kingdom in 1982 and ended in Britain’s victory, this victory cannot be called a convincing victory. Because in this war, if the Argentines have more modern aircraft and more anti-ship missiles, the entire British fleet may be buried forever in the waters near the Falklands, becoming the best diving site for divers.

The article argues that if the Second Falklands War had broken out, the outcome might have been different. According to this Russian media, under normal circumstances, Argentina’s current military strength is far from that of the United Kingdom, and it is basically difficult to win against the United Kingdom on its own. more and more opportunities. The reason why Argentina has more and more hopes of recovering the Falkland Islands is mainly due to the following two aspects:

On the one hand, with the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, the United Kingdom provided a large amount of military assistance to Ukraine, including thousands of “Javelin” anti-tank missiles, a large number of long-range artillery, and funds for post-war reconstruction. Among them, there are more than 100,000 large-caliber artillery shells alone, and another 100,000 will be delivered next year. Although this method of wealth and wealth has made Britain the second largest arms supplier to Ukraine after the United States, But it also basically exhausted Britain’s financial resources and its own weapons and ammunition depot.

If the Second Falklands War broke out at this time, it would be difficult for Britain to win if it wanted to fight in the waters near the Falklands, which is about 12,000 kilometers away from the mainland. Moreover, what is even more terrible is that among the two current aircraft carriers in the UK, the “Prince of Wales” aircraft carrier is in the maintenance stage, and the remaining “HMS Queen Elizabeth” aircraft carrier is basically difficult to afford for the British Navy to travel thousands of miles. Rush to Falklands for large-scale military operations.

Argentina, on the other hand, is now clearly betting on increasing its national sovereignty. Specifically, together with neighboring Brazil, they will jointly establish a new common currency called sur, which may become an alternative payment method for the US dollar in the future, aiming to free South America from becoming the “backyard” of the United States.

In this context, whether it is from the perspective of the British situation or the international situation, it is very favorable for Argentina to seek retaliation for its defeat in the Falklands War 41 years ago. With the country’s modern attack aircraft and long-range With anti-ship missiles, the Argentine Navy can use its surface and submarine fleet to block air and sea targets on the Falkland Islands.

Of course, after talking about Argentina’s great opportunity to seize the Falklands, the Russian military website “topcor.ru” also emphasized that in order to regain the sovereignty of the Falklands from the United Kingdom, it is not enough to rely on itself. Argentina must also win Only by looking for military aid from outside can continuously provide new impetus for the war. So, who is more suitable to seek military aid? According to the Russian media, if a year ago, Argentina’s best target should be Russia, but now, China is Argentina’s best choice.

As for why the Russian media said that if Argentina wanted to reach out for military aid, it would be more likely to choose China instead of Russia. The big reason may be that even the Russians themselves do not believe whether Russia will have extra arms exports. After all, in the Ukrainian war, the performance of the Russian army’s hip-pull is obvious to all. Not only does it lack modern weapons, but even drones have to ask Iran for help, which has turned the modern war into a “human charge” World War II model. Let me ask, how can such a country that is short of weapons have a surplus to export arms to the outside world?

In contrast, although China’s annual foreign military sales cannot be compared with Russia, it has also increased in recent years, especially the sales of drones and “Fierce Dragon” fighter jets in the international arms market are also remarkable, while These Chinese weapons are exactly what Argentina currently needs. Just talking about the “Fierce Dragon” fighter jets, Argentina also intends to introduce this Chinese fighter jet in recent years, but it has been obstructed by many parties. As of now, there is still no news. If Argentina purchases a large number of “Fierce Dragon” fighter jets, it will greatly improve It has strengthened Argentina’s air strike force and laid a solid foundation for winning the Falklands’ air supremacy.

Of course, saying that Argentina seeks military aid from China instead of Russia is just a one-sided opinion of the Russian media, but from the perspective of the Chinese, how should we view Argentina’s request for the UK to restart negotiations on the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands?

Judging from the current international situation, China supports Argentina’s declaration of sovereignty over the Falklands, but it is unlikely that China will provide arms sales. On the one hand, there is no need for us to go to this muddy water, and our current geostrategic focus is not on Argentina, but to break through the first and second island chains established by the United States to the east, and to the Eurasian continent, the Middle East, and even to the west. Africa expands our international reach;

On the other hand, although Argentina has a good relationship with my country, there is no need to pay too much attention to it. It is naturally best to do arms sales business, but it does not matter if it fails. We only need to maintain the position of Argentina on the Falkland Islands issue. Unanimity is enough, there is no need to take risks to help Argentina as far away as South America. In short, there is a saying in China, “Heaven helps those who help themselves”. If Argentina wants to recover the Falkland Islands, it may only rely on its own fists that are constantly getting stronger. As for how to harden the fists, why not try to be like Pakistan , How about cooperating with the Eastern powers?

Source: mil